Forecasting of dependence,market, and investment risks of a global index portfolio

This paper undertakes an in-sample and rolling-window comparative analysis of dependence, market, and portfolio investment risks on a 10-year global index portfolio of developed, emerging, and commodity markets. We draw our empirical results by fitting vine copulas (e.g., r-vines, c-vines, d-vines), IGARCH(1,1) RiskMetrics value-at-risk (VaR), and portfolio optimization methods based on risk measures such as the variance, conditional value-at-risk, conditional drawdown-at-risk, minimizing regret (Minimax), and mean absolute deviation. The empirical results indicate that all international indices tend to correlate strongly in the negative tail of the return distribution; however, emerging markets, relative to developed and commodity markets, exhibit greater dependence, market, and portfolio investment risks. The portfolio optimization shows a clear preference towards the gold commodity for investment, while Japan and Canada are found to have the highest and lowest market risk, respectively. The vine copula analysis identifies symmetry in the dependence dynamics of the global index portfolio modeled. Large VaR diversification benefits are produced at the 95% and 99% confidence levels by the modeled international index portfolio. The empirical results may appeal to international portfolio investors and risk managers for advanced portfolio management, hedging, and risk forecasting.     

Muhaka icipe,an enigmatic new genus and species of Kleidotomini (Hymenoptera: Figitidae: Eucoilinae) from an East African coastal forest

A remarkable new eucoiline genus and species, Muhaka icipe, is described herein. The genus is clearly a Kleidotomini, but is distinguished from other genera in the tribe by a unique head and scutellar morphology. The genus belongs to the ‘wedge-head’-syndrome group of species that, to date, is unique to Afrotropical eucoilines. The new genus and species is reminiscent of Stentorceps Quinlan and Nanocthulhu Buffington, but is readily distinguished from these genera. Muhaka was collected from a threatened kaya (sacred forest) of coastal Kenya. The biological importance of this and other kaya forests, as well as their protection, is discussed.

http://www.zoobank.org/urn:lsid:zoobank.org:pub:6918ED2C-69A4-48FC-A1E4-2B5DFF58E876     

模拟结果为什么比实际更暖:简化气候模型结果（英文）

设计了一个非专业人士能够使用、最简化的气候敏感模型,用来研究人类活动所导致的全球变暖的幅度问题.在1990年的第一次IPCC评估报告中,IPCC对其报告中预测的未来全球变暖幅度很有信心,但是随后的观测结果显示全球的变暖幅度只有预测的一半.而自2001年起,全球变暖出现停滞,但是仅仅考虑到二氧化碳浓度的增加,很少有模型能够模拟出这一变化.在已出版的IPCC第五次评估报告的草稿中,IPCC大幅度削减了近期变暖的幅度,并以专家评估代替了模型预测.但是报告中关于未来气候长期变化的预测仍被保留.如果把IPCC模型的总反馈从1.9 W m–2 K–1调整到1.5 W m–2 K–1,气候敏感模型中模拟的温度将从3.2 K降至2.2 K.同时由于反馈很可能是净负反馈,更合适的估计应该是1.0 K.1.0 K是一个能够实现的增幅,21世纪的实际变暖将会小于1 K.即使燃烧所有可开采的化石燃料也不会使全球变暖的幅度超过2.2 K,这一增加幅度也将趋于平稳.本文认为解决IPCC第四、五次报告中评估方法的差异非常关键.一旦这些差异得到解决,人类活动导致的全球变暖在22世纪以及几个世纪以后的平稳态将有可能不会超过IPCC当前模型预测的1/3~1/2.     

Effect of equal channel angular pressing on aging treatment of Al-7075 alloy

The effect of aging treatment on microstructure and mechanical properties of equal channel angular pressed Al-7075 alloy was examined.Commercial Al-7075 alloy in the solid solution heat-treated condition was processed by equal channel angular pressing through route BCat both the room temperature and 120 1C. Only three passes of equal channel angular pressing was possible due to the low ductility of the alloy at both temperatures. Followed by equal channel angular pressing, the specimens have been aged at 120 1C for different aging times. Mechanical properties were measured by Vickers microhardness and tensile tests and microstructural observations were undertaken using transmission electron microscopy, X-ray diffractometer as well as optical microscopy. Microstructural investigations showed that ultrafine-grained materials with grain size in the range of 200–350 nm and 300–500 nm could be obtained after three passes of equal channel angular pressing at room temperature and 120 1C, respectively. Equal channel angular pressing of solid solution heat-treated Al-7075 alloy accelerates precipitation rate and subsequently leads to a significant decrease in aging time to attain maximum mechanical properties. Furthermore, it is possible to achieve maximum mechanical properties during equal channel angular pressing at 120 1C as a result of dynamic aging and formation of small η′ phase.     

φ混合序列的完全矩收敛性

主要利用φ混合序列的矩不等式和随机变量的截尾技术,在适当的矩条件下,研究了φ混合序列的完全矩收敛性。本文的结果推广了独立序列和已有文献关于φ混合序列的相应结果,同时也将φ混合序列的完全收敛性改进到完全矩收敛性。     

A new species of Phrynobatrachus (Amphibia: Anura: Phrynobatrachidae) from the Northern Mountains of Tanzania

ABSTRACT

Using integrative approaches, a new large-bodied species of Phrynobatrachus is described from a series of 48 specimens from the montane forests of the West Usambara and North Pare Mountains of Tanzania. The most distinguishing morphological feature separating Phrynobatrachus ambanguluensis sp. nov from similar species is the markedly overhanging and pointed upper jaw and snout. Mitochondrial 16S rRNA indicates that the new species differs from all other species with published sequence data by a minimum distance of 4.75% and is sister to P. krefftii, with which it has been confused in the past. The new species is known from two forest reserves and is of high conservation concern given these areas are highly impacted by anthropogenic change.

http://www.zoobank.org/urn:lsid:zoobank.org:pub:E0C82A87-47A5-426B-978D-96D27FA7A3B7     

Multiobjective routing in multiservice MPLS networks with traffic splitting — A network flow approach

A multiobjective routing model for Multiprotocol Label Switching networks with multiple service types and traffic splitting is presented in this paper.The routing problem is formulated as a multiobjective mixed-integer program,where the considered objectives are the minimization of the bandwidth routing cost and the minimization of the load cost in the network links with a constraint on the maximal splitting of traffic trunks.Two different exact methods are developed for solving the formulated problem,one based on the classical constraint method and another based on a modified constraint method.Avery extensive experimental study,with results on network performance measures in various reference test networks and in randomly generated networks,is also presented and its results are discussed.